Wartime Presidents

Wannabes Beware

The current occupant of the the Oval Office seems to be fitfully attempting to recast himself as a wartime president, presumably with the thought that it will help him win reelection.

There is an unexamined assumption here that presidents tend to get reelected if there is a war going on. The obvious examples are Lincoln and Roosevelt. And then even George W. Bush got a second term, so it can't just be about merit.

I do think that there's an instinct to rally around the flag when a war breaks out. But I also think this impulse has an expiration date.

Exhibit A here is Lyndon Johnson. who was basically hounded out of office for his mismanagement of the Vietnam War.

If we stand back and look over our entire history, the reelection efforts of wartime presidents have had mixed results.

James Madison didn't exactly win the War of 1812, and the British did burn down a good bit of Washington, D.C., which I think we can say was at least embarrassing. But he did win reelection in 1812, during the early days of the war.

Harry Truman wanted to run again in 1952, in the midst of the Korean War, but he was widely unpopular and withdrew after he lost the New Hampshire primary.

Richard Nixon won reelection in the midst of the Vietnam War and the gathering clouds of the Watergate scandal. One of the campaign slogans that year was, "Don't change Dicks in the middle of a screw; vote for Nixon in '72." On August 9, 1974, Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment, conviction, and removal from office.

William McKinley won the Spanish-American War in 1898 and was elected to a second term in 1900. Six months into his second term he was assassinated. Theodore Roosevelt succeeded to the presidency.

Other cases are, I think, interesting but inconclusive.

James Polk won the Mexican-American War (1846-1848), but he had pledged to serve only one term, and he honored his pledge. He died in 1849.

Woodrow Wilson won reelection before the United States entered World War I. He sought a third term in 1920, but his health was so poor that the Democrats chose James M. Cox as their candidate. Republican Warren G. Harding won the election.

George H.W. Bush won his war in the Persian Gulf, but by the time the election rolled around, the war was over and the economy was down. He was defeated by Bill Clinton.

Overall, I think the closest analogue for Donald Trump, in the wartime president department, is Lyndon Johnson.

And here's a cautionary note for newly elected presidents: If you get into a war, your chances of completing a second term are rather dim. Only four presidents have done it, and one of them - Franklin Roosevelt - died in office before his war was over.
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For more on wartime presidents, see Michael Beschloss, Presidents of War (2018).