The good news: Trump will fail.
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| Ali leans back and lets the ropes do the work. |
On October 30, 1974, there was a boxing match in a country which was then called Zaire and is now known as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The promoters called it The Rumble in the Jungle. The contestants were Muhammad Ali, age 32, and George Foreman, age 25.
Foreman was the current heavyweight boxing champion; in 1968 had won a gold medal at the Olympics, and in 1973 he defeated Joe Frazier to become heavyweight champion. That bout lasted two rounds. Foreman was noted for his punching power and physical dominance.
Ali had won Olympic gold in 1960, and in 1964, at the age of 22, he had become heavyweight champion by defeating Sonny Liston. He was noted for his speed and agility - as he put it, "Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee."
Ali converted to Islam in the early 1960s, and in 1964 he changed his name from Cassius Clay to Muhammad Ali.
The draft
On April 28, 1967, Ali formally refused to be drafted into the Vietnam war. He appeared in Houston for his scheduled induction but did not step forward at the call of his name, even though he was repeatedly warned that he was committing a felony that could land him in jail for five years.
Ali's position as a conscientious objector, based on both his religious beliefs and his ethical objections to the war, led a federal court in Houston to find him guilty of violating the selective service laws. Ali appealed, and in 1971 the U.S. Supreme Court overturned his conviction.
It's interesting to throw these dates up against what else was going in our national timeline. The country turned against the Vietnam war in 1968. The Tet offensive in January was the turning point. In February, Walter Cronkite, possibly the most trusted man in America, returned from a visit to Vietnam and told the people in a special newscast that the war was a stalemate. Not exactly the line from the White House, but President Johnson saw that he was done and, in an act of political self-immolation he told the country on March 31 that he would not run again for president. We then proceeded in August to the Democratic national convention in Chicago, where the Democratic party did its best to commit suicide, and Richard Nixon was elected president in November.
It seems fair to say that Ali's case went better after this turning point in 1968, but the damage to his career was significant.
After his initial conviction, Ali lost his championship and his boxing license, and his career went into an involuntary sabbatical: He had no fights between March 1967 and October 1970, three and a half empty years at what should have been the peak of his career.
The opponents
Foreman was strongly favored to win the match. He was younger, at age 25; Ali was 32, and his career, as we have seen, had become entangled in some remarkably distracting politics.
There was one question. Foreman had a history of knocking out his opponents in the early rounds. In fact, he won the championship in 1973 by demolishing the formidable Joe Frazier in two rounds. Would Foreman tire in a match that went longer? It was an open question.
Ali went into the fight as a 4-1 underdog. But he had a secret weapon, later called the "rope-a-dope."
Boxing rings are surrounded by rope fences that keep the contestants from falling out of the ring. Boxers occasionally find themselves, for various reasons, with their backs on the ropes, but being "on the ropes" is generally considered a bad sign for a boxer - certainly above "on his knees" or "flat on his back," but still concerning.
Ali instead turned the ropes to his advantage, pretending to be a victim, using the resiliency of the ropes to absorb some of the energy coming from Foreman's punches, and waiting for Foreman to give him an opening for a counterpunch. The "rope-a-dope" strategy, as it came to be called, worked like gangbusters, and was perhaps particularly effective because it was not expected.
Fabian tactics
I doubt that Ali was aware of this, but his tactics paralleled those of an old Roman general named Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus, who had the job of keeping a fellow named Hannibal from destroying Rome.
Quintus Fabius Maximus was called Cunctator, which meant The Delayer. His approach to Hannibal was not to face him directly in a major battle, but instead to slide away and, when Hannibal wasn't looking, nibble at his Achilles tendon.
It worked.
The fight
Back to the Rumble in the Jungle. The first round was fairly standard. Ali was strongly aggressive, attacking at close range. In the second round he switched his approach dramatically, introducing the rope-a-dope and ceding the initiative to Foreman, who expended a lot of energy trying to put his opponent away in an early round, as he had done successfully in previous matches.
By the fifth round Foreman was visibly tired, and his face showed the effect of the many punches Ali had managed to land while playing defense. In the seventh round (probably), while they were in a clinch, Ali whispered into Foreman's ear, "That all you got, George?" Foreman later said that was the moment he knew he was going to lose the match.
In the eighth round, Ali launched a vigorous counterattack against a very tired Foreman, ending with a left hook followed by a hard right, and Foreman went down to the canvas. As he was trying to get his feet under him, the referee ended the fight.
Is this how Trump will fall?
Let's apply this template to Donald Trump. We should note that Trump has always led a magically protected life. However, it is possible that the patina of teflon has been, at long last, all rubbed off. Of course he still has his orange makeup, and it appears he may actually think that adding more orange makeup will compensate for the absence of teflon. In this I believe he is mistaken.
Do you think that Trump has finally figured out that he is going to lose? I think so. But he'll keep fighting until he's knocked to the canvas and the referee ends the match. What will that look like? I don't know, but I hope people are preparing for this outcome. There is a huge and unpredictable downside to letting him continue. That is the bad news.
One final lesson
On a brighter note, Muhammad Ali has given us all a gift. He showed that you could put your career on the line and still win. He won on both fronts. He made his point about the Vietnam war for all to see, and his subsequent boxing career was perhaps no more brilliant than on that unforgettable night, many years ago, in the Congo.
The photograph above is in the public domain and available on Wikimedia Commons.
See also Fixing the Constitution, There's Got to Be a Better Way, Unleashing the Oligarchs, Somotomo.











