Life after the War on Cars
During the holidays at the end of last year, I spent some time with a young friend I hadn't seen in a while - he's been living in Berlin, in a neighborhood called Kreuzberg. As we were walking on a chilly night along Locust street, near Rittenhouse square in Philadelphia, he remarked that his visit to the United States had brought into sharp focus a quiet but major change in his life. He noted that, since his arrival back in the United States, he had spent a fair amount of time climbing into cars, riding somewhere, and then climbing out again. He said it felt unusual, and perhaps it was even a bit uncomfortable. In Kreuzberg, he added, he almost never got into a car; that was the way he lived and the way his friends lived. He guessed that 98% of people movement in his neighborhood did not involve cars, but rather public transit and bicycles. He didn't mention walking, but perhaps that was because he took walking for granted - so obvious that it didn't need to be mentioned.
I had the impression from my friend that Kreuzberg was considered a "cool' place to live, perhaps something like New York's Greenwich Village in the old days, and the indefatigable researchers at Wikipedia confirmed this impression. It's definitely cool.
It also has an interesting history. After World War II, Kreuzberg, or at least most of it, was allocated to the American sector, and it became home to Checkpoint Charlie, a control point where traffic was funneled to the Soviet sector. Adjacent to the south side of Kreuzberg is the Tempelhofer Feld, which as Tempelhof airport played an important role in the Berlin Airlift during the Cold War. It is now Berlin's largest city park and, according to Wikipedia, "the largest inner city open space in the world."
A bit to the north of Kreuzberg is the Brandenburg Gate, which is often thought of as the center of Berlin. I've never been to Berlin, but I have the impression that Greenwich Village, or perhaps even Tribeca, may be fitting analogues for Kreuzberg.
Still, the idea that 98% of movement does not involve an automobile seemed a bit fanciful to me.
Back in 2016 I wrote a story entitled Why Are European and American Bicycling So Different? Among the many things I learned was that Germany had been working hard to promote bicycling for many years and had experienced considerable success: "Berlin's bike commuting share went from 6 percent in 1990 to 13 percent in 2008." So Berlin has been working from a strong base.
I decided to have a look at more recent data and went again to Wikipedia, where I found an article entitled Modal Share. The compilers decided to use trips to work; theoretically it would be better to do all trips, but it's much harder to do that, and comparability of data declines quickly. The data are for metro areas and not core cities.
Modal Share Berlin (data 2023)
Walking 34%; Cycling 18%; Public Transport 26%; Private Motor Vehicle 22%.
Modal Share New York City (data 2019)
Walking 30.7%; Cycling 1.1%; Public Transport 32.1%; Private Motor Vehicle 30.2%
Modal Share Houston (data 2016)
Walking 1%; Cycling 0%; Public Transport 2%; Private Motor Vehicle 91%
You'll note that the American numbers do not add up to 100%. The German numbers do. The American numbers are also a lot older.
I hunted around a bit. I'm comfortable saying there is nothing like Berlin in the United States.
I was thinking that I would not be able to get data specific for Kreuzberg, which is a very small slice of Berlin and, because of its location and population, I was beginning to think that it might actually get to my friend's 98% not by car. Then I stumbled around a bit more, and to my surprise found an interesting conference paper from 2025 that provided microdata for a slice of Kreuzberg, specifically "a neighborhood around Lausitzer Platz in the Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg district of Berlin." Here you go:
Modal Share Kreuzberg baseline
Walk 28.9%; Bike 19.8%; Car Mode 13.2%; Passenger 8.9%; Public Transport 29.2%
Because these numbers break out car passengers as a separate category, the percentages are not directly comparable to the modal share numbers above. But if we drop out the car passengers, and just count the cars, and recalculate all the percentages, car modal share will still be well below 20%. In this context, I'm interested in the number of cars on the street, and not the number of people in the cars (which I'm guessing is considerably higher than an American number would be).
Kreuzberg seems to have reached a level of private car use that feels like 2%, even though it's somewhere between 10% and 20%. As they say in marketing, perception is reality. I prefer the concept that reality is reality, but people do make decisions based on perception. At some point, the physical shift to less car usage seems to translate into a mental shift where cars no longer dominate our thinking about streets, and we we are free to think of other things.
I've been wondering for a while about how far down we need car use to go before we can declare the war on cars over. This would be the point at which perceptions shift. Cars will no longer feel like an occupying army, and the fear of vehicular mayhem is minimal. My guess, based on the data above, is that the target is below 20% but above 10% mode share for cars. If I'm right, Kreuzberg is already there; Berlin is basically there. Houston is hopeless. New York could probably close the gap in a decade or two if they buckled down and really worked at it.
All of this is just a speculation, of course. You could build a whole research program and maybe come up with a smaller range; the range might vary from place to place. Maybe the perception shift doesn't exist. Personally, I think there is a
tipping point, and I wouldn't be surprised if 10-20% turned out to be the range. And 20% is going to be a lot easier to reach than 2%.
I could stop here, but the
Kreuzberg conference paper really deserves further discussion. Under the title Effects of Street Space Redesign on Travel Demand in Berlin, Germany, "this study describes the application of an agent-based travel demand model in combination with a microscopic traffic simulation model to simulate the effects of a baseline scenario and a redesign scenario of urban transport infrastructure on a small spatial scale of an inner-city neighborhood." Good heavens. The reading gets easier.
The study notes that many cities "are trying to create a more accessible and sustainable environment by promoting mixed-use neighborhoods and shifting urban mobility to more sustainable modes of transport. ... Modeling and simulating the impact of policy measures provides administrations with data and visualizations to discuss the design and implementation plans with citizens and thus create acceptance."
This last bit really caught caught my attention. Philadelphia has a
Neighborhood Slow Zones Program. I think it might want to look into using this tool to work with community members. Certainly the idea of using a few tweaks - the right tweaks - to create a 30% reduction in car traffic in a small area is attractive, and letting neighbors try various options with the model would probably be very popular with the neighbors.
There's a good bit more in the paper, but I'm already in well over my head here, so I think I'll swim back to where I can put my feet in the sand.